17 November 2020

The presidential elections have decided Moldova’s future

Sandu Valentin Mateiu

Maia Sandu was elected to be new president of Republic of Moldova, opening a different era for this state. Restlessness will emerge, generated by a “pyramid of power”, which is risking to lose its privilege of acting above the law. Republic of Moldova is not decisively following the democratization path, but its presidency has now become a functional institution in a state where most of the institutions were not doing their basic job, which is serving the citizen. However, it is true that Republic of Moldova’s faith was decisive at these elections: a normality pole has emerged, but this is changing the entire perspective.

Image source: Profimedia

In Chisinau, there was a fight for democracy, the rule of law and pro-European orientation

The populist Renato Usatli had an important role in Maia Sandu’s victory, as he opened the possibility for the Russophone electorate to vote not by heart, with Dodon, but following their brains, as they all need normality. Usatli wants early parliamentary elections, just like Maia Sandu, but these can hardly be organized. Anyhow, it is not quite clear what will Usatli do when he will get to have power in the Parliament, being promoted by the Russophone electorate’s vote, which is out of socialists’ control.

Finally, things are clearer in Chisinau: on one hand, the fight for democracy, the rule of law and the pro-European orientation, and, on the other hand, those who are going against the law and the democracy and who want to stay in the grey zone (Dodon’s socialsits, Shor and Plahotniuc’s people). The pro-Russia orientation of the socialists is not but a shield, which protects them from the democratic reforms demanded by the West and helps to get sponsorship. Maia Sandu won on an internal unity platform, opposed to her opponent’s geopolitical games and exploitation of ethical differences, which were taken to the extreme, when he talked about a civil war that could be produced by the increasing unionism. Indeed, the pro-European message Maia Sandu sent is a geopolitical option, but this is also assumed as a result of the internal democracy.

Dodon will do anything to stay relevant

The country gets out of the deadlock imposed by Igor Dodon, although he will do anything to stay relevant. Dodon did not lose the power, as his government and the socialists parliamentarians want to create a new majority, together with Short and Plahotniuc’s people, in a new parliamentary group, “For Moldova”. This is the fight that’s next, between Igor Dodon’s attempt to seize the power (supported by Shor and Plahotniuc) and Maia Sandu’s attempt, from the new president position, to overthrow this triad. Unfortunately, there is no quick solution to actually overthrow Dodon (although, in the RM parliament, anything can happen). Dodon knows that, and that’s why he did not concede, although he was tempted to commit frauds (the “I won on the internal plan” lie).

Kremlin is about to replace Dodon

Maia Sandu will seek to build good relations with Russia, but the question here is whether Moscow accepts the dialogue with a RM president who will only defend the interests of her state (not like Dodon). Most likely, the answer is no, as Kremlin is not ready to have a dialogue with the RM leaders. Kremlin is still playing the compromised Dodon’s card, most likely because it is difficult to give up this “investment”. Eventually, Kremlin will get rid of Dodon, replacing him with Ceban or a different less-compromised character, but only after getting it can from RM by using this tool.

Maia Sandu does not have to be a pro-Romanian, but serve the Moldavian citizen who chose her to be their president

If Igor Dodon is the definition of geopolitics, being the agent of a foreign power, Maia Sandu, by being an honest Moldavian, dedicated to democracy, will only haul up for the RM citizens. The biggest enemy Maia Sandu has will be this “pyramid of power”, a system which undermined the state institutions. RM will only evolve is the elite will find the minimum conscience to serve its country with. Maia Sandu is one of them. She will try to bring normality back in this country, as she has the back of honest Moldavians, regardless of their ethnicity. This truism Maia Sandu is sending, according to which the Moldavians are not good or bad following their ethnicity, but the legal criteria, divided into honest and dishonest people, is the moment the RM will reborn. RM citizens were for too long surrounded by hatred.

As for the relations with Romania, Maia Sandu does not have to be pro-Romanian, but only to serve the Moldavian citizens who chose her to be their president. It is enough, as the rest will stand to reason, because realities cannot be denied (but by the clever people in the pyramid of power, who also pretend to be “brothers”). Already integrated in the EU and NATO, Romania is developing on its own, so RM should find a place nearby. It is in Moldavians’ choice if RM will become Austria or RDG, but it certainly cannot become “Moldavia”. As much as Dodon and Kozak will try, RM will not be manipulated, using Transnistria[1]. Only a democratic change through Maia Sandu can led RM on a path that can turn it into an Austria we would like to join forces with within UE, because the illegal people can only lead it to RDG… and we all know how that state ended.

Dodon realized (using the civil war threat) this “danger”, when he noticed that 40% of the Moldavians want to reunite with Romania (a quick increase). This is the great threat for the RM’s power criminals: in a state they broke, unionism turned from a political option (used by them as a threat) to a social one: “only unity can save us from the social and economic disaster”. And this is only the beginning.

Translated by Andreea Soare

[1] Not even transported by bus, the Transnistria peopel could not change the balance so that to favor Dodon.