Revealing the misunderstood face of Turkey...

I am not a Turkish citizen, but Turkey has become my home in the past years and, although far from perfect, the reality here is much different than what you read from your comfortable home. I have always been a supporter of the “contextual understanding”. You can never understand Turkey, unless you are here, unless you are in the community, chatting with Turks from various political ideologies, taking the pulse, interacting and observing. So, allow me to show you a bit of that reality, in the most objective way I can possibly do it.

Turkey has kept the first page of a lot of journals for several reasons in the past years: the involvement in the Syrian war, the fight against terrorism (simultaneously, on different fronts, against different groups, if I may add), the power vs. energy game in the Mediterranean, the refugee crisis, the S-400, and the coup attempt. Although a lot has been written regarding these topics, I could see only little interest in documenting how Turkey has struggled in the fight against Daesh, or on the humanitarian aid provided to Syria since the war started. And, in the context of the current pandemic, I haven’t seen much written on the way Turkey has helped the international community in the fight against Covid-19 by sending medical aid and necessary equipment to countries in Europe and abroad. The virus has proved that the old “sick man of Europe” is stronger than ever before, and, although it was left alone along the way for many times, it proved the empathy that it had not received, dressed in an interesting kind of medical diplomacy.

Bear in mind that history is cyclic and only the ones that have learned from the mistakes of the past are to succeed facing the challenges of the future. Among all the actors that are playing their roles on the international scene today, Turkey has proved that there is at least one lesson that it has learned from the past and this can be expressed in the most simple way: the backup door. 

Rumours of a new coup attempt

Recently, some articles have been arguing that the Turkish political scene is fired on by several declarations in support for a new coup attempt (see Bulgarian Military, MK Turkey). I am not a supporter of any side and I strongly defend my objectivity. However, the Turkish political scene has always been tumultuous... that’s how politics is, and this is a consequence of democracy. But what the so-called international “experts” failed to understand is the fact that the Covid-19 crisis was turned into an opportunity by the AKP and President Erdogan. AKP regained people’s trust and support through a well-managed pandemic period that, unlike the expectations, has not hit the Turkish economy, already shrinking. It is interesting to witness how many of the opinions of the citizens who, not long ago, were arguing against the AKP politics have now changed and they are acknowledging the positive results of the measures taken by the government in the fight against Covid-19. And I can assure you that here, beyond the weekend curfews, the life has not stopped. The people have been permanently well-informed about the situation, the market places have been stocked as usual with everything that was needed (mostly from national/local production), the necessary medical equipment has been well administered and delivered according to the needs and, more than everything, the eldest have been treated as it should have been everywhere else... In a world that had been defetead by a virus that overwhelmed an unprepared medical system and had to sacrifice the old generation, rushing very easily towards such a decision, Turkey has made it clear from the very first days that the ones that should be protected the most are the eldest. And it didn’t remain just as a simple political declaration: police, gendarmery, army and volunteers, all have helped bringing hot meals every day, doing the grocery shopping and making sure that the eldest have all they need and they don’t go out in the streets. I haven’t seen much written in the news about this, but I have seen articles describing how “bad the situation is in Turkey and how the Turkish state is hiding the real numbers of Covid-19 cases”. People are getting ill and die everywhere today, but Turkey has definitely won the first fight with the virus, although made it very clear that the war is not over.

Back to the rumours regarding a new coup attempt, this topic comes up every year close to the date of the failed coup attempt back in 2016. It is also true that Turkey has a long history of coups that have given a re-set to the political scene in the past. But this is not the case today. Moreover, as the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli emphasized back in February this year, spreading such rumours regarding the eventuality of a new coup attempt is nothing else than a “betrayal to the country”. Elaborating on the “probability of a coup” discussions in RAND’s 277-page report for the Pentagon, Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu said there is no institution or person in Turkey that can attempt a coup. Speaking to daily Hürriyet, Soylu said the government is well prepared against such a possibility. The report by the RAND Corporation for Pentagon claimed that the Turkish government’s decision to expel hundreds of army officers after a failed coup attempt in 2016 caused disappointment in the Turkish military: “mid-level officers are reported to be extremely frustrated with the military leadership and concerned about being removed in the continuing post-coup purges”, the report said. Asked by the journalists to comment on the coup rumours back in February, president Erdogan focused on how the public would react if a coup was initiated. Referring to the coup attempt of July 15, 2016, he said, “Our nation gave them the proper answer on July 15. People gained significant experience about this. So, this time around they would not think twice whether to go out or not. I am confident that my people would take to the streets with whatever they have in their hands.”

Timur Kuran, an economics and political science professor at Duke University, “AKP's only hope for retaining power lies in an event that would rally the country behind the flag”. I strongly believe that the pandemic - an unseen common enemy – has provided the current government the great opportunity to regain the support of the population.

However, just like a conversation that nevers gets old, the coup rhetoric is part of the Turkish politics for several reasons. It is the history of coups witnessed by the country and the fact that although the Turkish public opinion is divided on numerous issues, being anti-coup is something the public can unite around. Another explanation can be found in the comments that the Turkish armed forces are stretched thin after years of purges in top cadres, changes in their structure, and military deployments in Libya and Syria. But bearing in mind the performance of the Turkish army on both the Libyan and the Syrian front, I strongly believe that it is at its strongest and most effective level in the past fifty years. And it has at use very powerful technology that is now nationally produced, as part of the defence industry.

However, the rumours go on, as independent events take place in Turkey. One of them is the assignment and resignation of Cihat Yayci.  

Cihat Yayci’s assignment and resignation

Considered to be “the architect of Turkey’s aggressive behaviour in the Mediterranean”, the rear admiral and chief of staff of the Turkish Navy, Cihat Yayci, was assigned to the Turkish General Staff in the decision signed by the President Erdogan last Friday. He eventually resigned from the new position, an act that has been debated intensively in the Turkish media.

Yaycı is known for various achievements throughout his career. He is the “intellectual father “of the Turkish-Libyan maritime deal that was signed on November 27th , a bilateral agreement that was criticized by international experts as a fait accompli aimed at changing regional dynamics.  Also, in the context of the fight against the Fethullah Gulen Terrorist Organization, Yayci developed the application called "Fetömetre" in order to reveal people belonging to the group within the army. In addition, while serving as the Chief of Staff of the Naval Forces, Major General Cihat Yaycı achieved a first as an Associate Professor. Yaycı was the first combat admiral to take this title on duty. Yayci has also been know for his recent book, “Requirements of Greece: The problems in the Aegean with Questions and Answers” where he argued that Turkey has the right to claim sovereignity over some islands and islets in the Aegean Sea.

According to an Ankara-based military analyst for Arab News, his controversial books covering suggestions for Turkish maritime policy infuriated Akar, as he was outspoken in voicing his ideas about military moves. The analyst said: “However, the final straw was his (Yayci’s) insistence on pushing for negotiations between Israel and Ankara over the delimitation of maritime borders. The Turkish Foreign Ministry was against such a deal.” Yayci was prevented from attending a critical strategy meeting at the presidential palace in December. Another admiral was sent in his place without any official explanation. In fact, apart from the uncontestable value of the books he wrote, the publicity won by Yayci in expressing his political views has, at some point, clashed with his military responsabilities and this may have represented a reason for Minister Akar’s decision.

Personally, I followed one of Yayci’s main military achievements: the “Blue Homeland 2019”. Launched on 27 February, the Blue Homeland 2019 was Turkey's largest naval exercise in the country's history, testing its ability to wage war simultaneously in the Black Sea, Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. The exercise was designed to build confidence and stability throughout Turkey and to contribute to NATO's common objectives and should therefore be analysed in a wider context.The Turkish naval exercise "Mavi Vatan", translated “Blue Homeland”, took place from 27 February to 8 March and was an important show of force on 462,000 square kilometres in the Black Sea, the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean, with 103 military ships and 20,000 soldiers participating. As part of the exercise, the Turkish Navy visited 33 ports in Turkey and another seven abroad in the Black Sea to demonstrate Turkish interest in military cooperation in the region. The exercise had been planned six months in advance according to NATO rules and regulations and was conducted in accordance with international law. According to Turkish officials, Blue Homeland 2019 was a joint military exercise to test the weapons and military systems of the Turkish naval forces, to increase the level of preparation and to develop interoperability procedures with other military commands. The exercise provided an opportunity to present the new weapons and systems recently added to the Turkish military inventory and manufactured by the domestic defence industry. As an impressive show of force, which sent a powerful message both internally and externally, a large number of national and international military ships took part in the Blue Homeland: 13 frigates, 6 corvettes, 16 assault boats, 7 submarines, 7 mine hunting ships, 17 auxiliary class ships, 14 outpost ships, 22 landing ships and a training ship. The new systems and weapons were tested in various operations, including naval control, submarine defence warfare, mine warfare, electronic warfare preparatory training, joint training with the Air Force Command, the Turkish Land Weapons Command, and training of all-purpose helicopters by the associated coastal units. The “Blue Homeland 2019” was actually a vivid expression of Turkey’s possibilities and future strategies connecting the three seas. It was also a reflection of Yayci’s vision of Turkish maritime power.

The context of his new designationation and further resignation is still debated in Turkey, many voices blaming his strategical vision in the Mediterranean. There are also a lot of rumours regarding some internal logistic issues within the Turkish Navy. What is still to be determined is the way this change of person-in-charge will affect Turkey’s strategy in the Mediterranean and not only...

What next for Turkey?

Although accused by many either for the refugees, the war in Syria or the S-400, Turkey has come a long way to the position it occupies today on the political scene. Like it or not, here it is the uncomfortable reality for many: Turkey is and will be a strong player at both regional and international level. Just like all other major players, Turkey faces internal political struggle, a lot of which is fed from outside its borders, but a new coup or any undemocratic change of power is far from the reality on the ground. Yet, the government and the people of Turkey are minding their own business: keeping the economy’s engines rolling, fighting several terrorist groups at the same time, feeding several million refugees and, nowadays, giving the world a lesson of both nationalism and patriotism. And, as I end these lines, today at 19:19, everybody is in the balconies of their homes singing the national anthem… and just after that, a national song that resonates the best with Turkey’s glorious past and unites it with the present: the Izmir March.

“In the mountains of İzmir, flowers bloom

Golden sun sparks its rays there

Defeated enemies they run like the wind blowing

Long live Mustafa Kemal Pasha…”