Is Daesh growing stronger in Syria and Iraq?
Andreea Stoian KaradeliWhile the world is now facing the pandemic and adapts to new social, economic and political realities, terrorist groups are still active and, although facing the virus themselves, are ready to seize the newly created opportunities and reach their goals. So is Daesh, struggling to gain more power in both Syria and Iraq. Security experts have warned that ISIS is regrouping in Syria and Iraq, where the terror organisation once ruled over vast swathes of land, and that it is preparing for a resurgence.
Every time I describe the emergence and evolution of Daesh, I use an analogy that, in my opinion, is a perfect match: “The Phoenix bird”. Salafi-jihadism should be already well-known for its most definitory characteristic – the power to rise again from its own ashes. Or at least, from what we all consider to be ashes. There are, in fact, striking similarities between the current Daesh strategy and events that happened in 2013-14 when it managed to seize territories in Iraq and Syria. Therefore, many reports from the ground prove that, after major military setbacks two years ago, Daesh is showing signs it is regrouping in parts of Iraq and Syria, stoking fears of a dreaded resurgence of the terror group in the war-weary countries. But some experts said the group’s lethal capacity remained far lower than in previous years and it has yet to show major tactical changes. The last remarks only prove how few are the lessons taken from the past and, nevertheless, how little many so-called experts know and understand, in reality, about the group.
Although formed out of smaller, dispersed cells, Daesh has ramped up attacks in the past couple of months. On May 2, Daesh fighters killed 10 members of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in fierce clashes in Salahaddin province, one of the most fatal encounters in the country in at least two years. The PMF released a statement confirming that 10 of its men were killed by the terror group near the city of Balad and said that it had killed “numerous” Daesh fighters. On May 7, Daesh attacked military vehicles belonging to the mainly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the Syrian desert, killing at least 11 soldiers, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights watchdog. The attack adds to numerous assaults in the vast desert region west of the Euphrates — including in Deir ez-Zor, Homs and Suwaidda — which have killed an estimated 515 pro-regime soldiers and loyalists since March 2019.
Moreover, Daesh propaganda channels have been emphasizing intensively calls for action, both in organizing attacks and in providing support to break into the camps in Syria and Iraq in order to free members of the group and their families. In addition to ramping up recruitment, especially within Syria and Iraq’s camps for internally displaced persons, Daesh is now using cryptocurrency platforms to hide their capital. Although several branches of the International Coalition Against Daesh together with Interpol have drained many of the financing channels of the group, Daesh’s digital stash include illegal donations and possibly $300 million worth of war profits, according to security experts. Bearing in mind that cryptocurrency had been used in the past to fund attacks, such as the 2019 Easter Sunday attacks in Sri Lanka and several attacks in Western Europe, this money could be used to fund more attacks in the future. Therefore, intensive work to track down the financial network of the group should be one of the main priorities for the international CT community.
Based on extensive research throughout my PhD and in my current work, I have had the chance to analyse and understand the mindset and strategy of Daesh, that can be summarized in three main words: opportunity, context, adaptability. They easily adapt to the created context and seize the opportunities that appear on the way. In fact, the group is now following the same playbook that they used back in 2013, taking advantage of our stubbornness in never learning from past mistakes. In my opinion, the threat of a resurgent Daesh has been there all along since the International Coalition declared victory against the so-called “Caliphate” and governments around the world could be about to make the same mistake again of missing it and reacting too late.
Counting on “Decapitation”
To begin with, it was misleading to hope that Daesh would decline after its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in October 2019 in a US special forces raid. Like when it emerged out of al-Qaida in Iraq, Daesh might very well resurge under its new leader, Amir Mohammed Abdul Rahman al-Mawli al-Salbi. The group has proved that it can rebuild and get stronger after the lost of a leader, even from the highest ranks, several times in the past. Each time, it came out more powerful, better organized and more dangerous. “Decapitation” is not a victory per se, and it does not mean that we won the war, but just one battle.
Insurgency attacks and marking their presence
The attacks that took place in May are just a few in a series of smaller attacks with lower direct contact from the attacker. Smaller cells, dispersed on a vast territory, provide perfect assets in making the presence of the group felt. Although they still live the fantasy of complex attacks causing many deaths, they are also aware that intensive small attacks provide all the gains necessary for the propaganda channels.
Calls for action – prison break
The Daesh prisons in northern Syria are currently run by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the primarily Kurdish militia that defeated Daesh with the support of the west. Overcrowded and understaffed, these prisons are ticking time bomb. Most of the propaganda during the pandemic has called for those prisons and camps to be broken into and for the fighters and their families to be released. This is, in fact, not a new strategy. One of Daesh’s most successful operations was its 2012-13 prison escape campaign Breaking the Walls to free veteran fighters. The campaign was remarkable due to its length and level of organisation, including the major break of Abu Ghraib, Iraq in July 2013 in which more than 500 prisoners escaped. Moreover, the fighters that were released became an important asset in the internal structure of the group.
According to Iraqi intelligence, Daesh has been preparing a prison break campaign, which it calls Break Down the Fences. A systematic prison break campaign similar to Breaking the Walls could pave the way for a resurgence of Daesh in Iraq and Syria.
Power vacuum in Syria and Iraq
Conflict escalation continues in Syria, while the security vacuum in Iraq remains unchanged. One common mistake the West makes is to treat the two countries as one same region, when the reality on the ground is much different. The geographical, historical, political, social, economic, cultural contexts are not the same for both Syria and Iraq, and this was reflected in the way the group has evolved separately in the two areas. Daesh has taken advantage from the power and security vacuums existing in both countries, but with different variables and actors involved.
Iraq still has a very fragile government and a newly designated prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who, although declared his full support to the International Coalition against Daesh, is currently facing huge challenges. Another round of chaos caused by a collapsing government would quickly be exploited by Daesh to recruit disenchanted citizens.
On the other hand, Syria is facing its own power vacuum together with a continuing civil war and many foreign powers involved in its territory. Meanwhile, the SDF’s redeployment of forces to defend Kurdish regions against the Turkish incursion has already opened the door for Daesh to regain footholds in the Deir Ezzor area, its last stronghold before the territorial defeat in March 2019.
Although two different contexts, the local variables in both Syria and Iraq can be favourable for a Daesh revival and regrouping.
The FTF phenomenon and the “global insurgency”
While the flow of foreign fighters coming to Iraq and Syria has now nearly halted, Daesh still maintains a strong propaganda machinery that takes its message to the hearts and minds of a broad audience, much of which is unknown to the security apparatus of nation states. There are various groups around the world that have declared affiliations with Daesh, in north and west Africa, south-east Asia, providing them with new escape routes for their foreign terrorist fighters. In this way, Daesh has the capacity to prepare or inspire terrorist attacks around the world.
Covid-19 and the international focus
When the International Coalition Against Daesh announced the victory over the group back in March 2019, when it liberated Baghuz, the general perspective was that the war was over. But, in reality, the group was not completely smashed, and the sleeping cells have remained in their positions up to this date, gaining more and more power. Daesh propaganda machine has repeatedly declared it will seek revenge for the “Massacre of Baghuz” and even called the Covid-19 pandemic as a punishment coming from God for the suffers of the “people of Baghuz”. Beyond the propaganda and its wide reach, the international focus is now entirely on the pandemic, rather than split between all the threats that have existed before the virus. Therefore, just like it did in the past, the international security community might lose from the sight what has the power to become one more powerful terrorist threat.
Conclusion
Daesh has all the necessary elements to be able to regroup and attack in Syria and Iraq, gaining more and more power on the ground. Unfortunately, this time, their network is already extended with new groups from Africa and Asia ready to provide logistic and human network support. From the status of a “global insurgency”, Daesh is not even by far out of the international scene, but rather implanted deep on the back of all the international political players, taking the game to a new level.
