During the pandemic, terrorism is still a threat in Africa

The epidemiological and local security situation

According to official numbers, so far, Africa was not that affected as other continents by the new coronavirus. However, in the last week of March and the first week of April, it was recorded an increased growth of confirmed cases and the number of infected people went quickly from 1 000 cases to more than 8 000.

The presence of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) will worsen the humanitarian crises caused by the weak governance and the security forces’ fragility in Africa. Almost half of the 54 countries of the continent reported infections with COVID-19, and the number of cases may grow. Furthermore, the salafi-jihadism activities are causing mass dislocations which can compromise authorities’ response to COVID-19’s stop, having negative consequences on the sanitarian and social assistance systems. Besides all of this, there is also the big number of refugees affected by the bad economic situation and the lack of jobs. The economic situation pressures the governments’ capacity to provide basic food for the population.

Not least, the current pandemic may affect the terrorism combat missions especially that the financial, technical resources and materials are provided by non-African nations (US, the European Union, Russia).

The terrorist activities are increasing...

As I was stating at the begging of this year, “salafi-jihadist activities from West of Africa, especially Sahel (which includes Mali and Burkina Faso territories), but not limited to, are increasing. Both the Al-Qaida groups and the ISIL ones are more and more lethal and active, both following to establish the control of a bigger area in this region that is offering them both a place to stay and funding sources”.

In North of Cameroon, seven people got killed when two attackers belonging to Boko Haram blow themselves out, on April 5h.

Chad suffered the biggest loss this year in the fight against terrorism, on March 23th, when a Boko Haram group, allied with and Al-Qaida, attacked a basis of the Boma Peninsula army, in Chad Lake region, killing 92 soldiers.

Another Boko Haram faction, allied with ISWAP (the Islamic State from West Africa) has executed an ambush on a Nigerian military convoy in Gorgi, Yobe, on March 24^th. They killed at least 47 soldiers, according to local media. An active terrorist group from Mozambique, known for being affiliated to ISIL, has attacked the Mocimba da Praia city port, on March 24^th, and included the village in a so-called caliphate.

At the same time, there are also internal revolts, both within ISWAP and Boko Haram, due to their actions and leaders’ “softness”. Their internal fights between the two groups may weaken their action capacities, but we might also witness their re-fusion.

Also, the terrorist action from Chad strengthens the previous estimation according to which although in the Middle East and East of Africa the groups affiliated to ISIL and Al-Qaida fight over supremacy, in West of Africa these groups are collaborating to take over the control of a territory.

The propaganda of the terrorist organization “Islamic State form Iraq and Levant” (ISIL) and Al-Qaida stayed on the same coordinates during the crisis. On one side, ISIL urges its members and sympathizers to bang and take care of themselves, because the new coronavirus is a punishment God gave for the non-Muslim people but, at the same time, asked its followers to show no mercy to non-faithful people (kafir) and launch attacks even during such crises times. On the other side, Al-Qaida asked the non-Muslim people to use their self-isolation or quarantine time to find out more about the Islam.

... but the antiterrorist operations also continue

After the recent attacks, the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), which includes Nigeria, Niger and Chad, has launched a major operation in Chad Lake region, against the Boko Haram and ISWAP organizations. Within the media conferences from Abuja, a spokesperson of the Nigerian army, brigade-general Bernard Onyeuko, has stated that “these terrorist acts needed an equal response from states of the Chad Lake basin”. The MNJTF antiterrorist operation completes the “Lafiya” Dole operation, wherein the Nigerian security forces develop counter-terrorist actions in North-East of the country.

The presence of foreign forces is still high...hoping to get additional forces

The recent terrorist attacks were the result of the confrontations on the presence of the US army in Africa, particularly in West Africa. This ambiguity generated confusion also among the European states, which support the fight against terrorism on the African continent.

At the end of March, 11 European states announced the development of a special command unit in Maki, called Takuba. The fight group should reach its initial operational capacity this summer and the total operational capacity at the beginning of 2021. The fight group will be led by the commander of the “Barkhane Operation” led by France, but it will have a high autonomy level. The fight group will collaborate with the Sahel G5 group, composed of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger units. The new fight group adds to the international presence within the UN mission to Mali (MINUSMA) and the EU mission (EUTM – European Union Training Mission).

Despite this human and logistical effort, the high presence of foreign troops in West Africa could not stop the salafi-jihadist actions in the region, which are mostly affecting the life of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso inhabitants.

Conclusion... the situation did not change too much

The terrorist organizations could exploit the “humanitarian gap” created by the coronavirus pandemic. These groups, be it ISIL, Al-Qaida of “independent” could increase the provision of service to the population, taking a step ahead in fields where the state cannot provide medical assistance, water or basic food, building or consolidating the popular support for the establishment of a “caliphate”. If the COVID-19 spread in Africa will reach the China, Europe or US levels, the panic, chaos and confusion will spread quickly, and the terrorist groups will try to take advantage of it.

Therefore, we can state that the situation did not change too much since January, when I was writing that, in the region, there is “Chaos and an attempt to respond to the chaos, manifested through the will to take over the responsibilities of failed states, to provide security and prosperity for the population... Although not used in the region, the “failed” state term does seems to be an evanescent reality in there, but a status quo which starts to get spread affecting more states”... along with COVID-19.

English version by Andreea Soare